I recently listened to a podcast with Paul Spiegelman interviewing Jack Stack, that discussed Black Swans & their Upside. It was pitched with the caveat, “if you can last that long”. On wikipedia, Black swan theory is defined as a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. To say that the current COVID-19 has been a surprise is currently being debated but it obviously has had a major global effect.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote about this idea and the problem of randomness, probability, and uncertainty in his 2007 book called The Black Swan. In it he dealt with theories about these events that have had large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history both socially and economically. What Spiegelman and Stack tried to drill down into was using scenarios like this to double down on your business and build robustness with Stack’s Black Swan Action Guide. I highly recommend it!
Business owners often include an exit strategy from their business plan if things head south. But forward thinking business owners also build up capital for downturns in the economy – knowing that if they can ride out the storm there’s smooth sailing on the other side. Some companies have enough capital to survive an economic storm like we’re currently experiencing.
Unfortunately, many do not.
Going from black to white
When we consider the current scenario that we’re in, it feels unexpected and has come on with intensity and quickness. The implications have had large sweeping changes and created concern even in the most resolute. As a business owner, it is important to have developed a strong sense of purpose and priority that you can rally your team around and have transparency with your team about the realities of the situation. As a business coach if you’d like to talk about your situation and use us as a sounding board we’re ready and willing. Click here to find a time that would be convenient for you .
These are dark times for sure but use the soberness of this situation to gain clarity about what your business must be doing to love and serve others well during this great time of need.